Gauges and model skill
The model is checked against Water Survey of Canada gauge 08NM116, Mission Creek near East Kelowna. Below the gauge the creek has no long-term gauge, so flows at the mouth are model results.
Stations used
| Station | Name | Type | Latitude | Longitude | Model use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08NM116 | Mission Creek near East Kelowna | Stream gauge (Water Survey of Canada) | 49.8779 | -119.413 | Raven obs HYDROGRAPH 210 |
| 08NM232 | Belgo Creek below Hilda Creek | Stream gauge (Water Survey of Canada) | 50.0004 | -119.073 | Raven obs HYDROGRAPH 226 |
| 08NM172 | Pearson Creek near the mouth | Stream gauge (Water Survey of Canada) | 49.8867 | -119.061 | not used in AE model |
| 2F05P | Mission Creek | Automated snow pillow (BC) | 49.9447 | -118.95 | HRU 9007 |
| 2F03 | McCulloch | Snow course (BC) | 49.7883 | -119.193 | HRU 16656 |
| 2F04 | Graystoke Lake | Snow course (BC) | 49.9887 | -118.869 | HRU 9797 |
| 2F05 | Mission Creek | Snow course (BC) | 49.9447 | -118.95 | HRU 10291 |
| 1123970 | Kelowna A | Climate station (ECCC) | 49.9561 | -119.378 | not a Raven gauge |
Fit at 08NM116
| Period | NSE | KGE | log NSE | PBIAS % | August excess m³/s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 to 2010 | 0.830 | 0.842 | 0.797 | -5.4 | 1.392 |
| 2011 to 2017 | 0.782 | 0.861 | 0.800 | 0.3 | 1.734 |
| 2018 to 2024 | 0.721 | 0.791 | 0.808 | 14.0 | 1.313 |
| 2011 to 2024 | 0.754 | 0.862 | 0.804 | 6.6 | 1.524 |
| 1998 to 2024 | 0.782 | 0.882 | 0.801 | 1.3 | 1.460 |
NSE: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (1 is a perfect fit). PBIAS: volume bias (positive means the model is too high). Calendar periods. Source: outputs/OBWB_BMIDDemandReleaseFit_v1_20261011.csv; F52, F84.
outputs/OBWB_BMIDDemandReleaseFit_v1_20261011.csv. Download data (CSV)outputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasWY_v1_20261011.csv; F84. Download data (CSV)Known limits
Summer flow is too high (F16, F52)
For 1998 to 2010 the model's July volume is 48.5% above the gauge and its August volume 94.2% above. For 2011 to 2024 the August excess is 1.524 m³/s. Summer low-flow and EFN results are therefore optimistic. A demand-following reservoir variant lowers the excess but empties Graystoke Reservoir in July, so it was not adopted (F52).
Volume after 2017 is too high (F84)
By water year, the volume bias is −3.3% for 1998 to 2017 and +14.9% for 2018 to 2024. Two years, WY2018 and WY2023, carry most of it: without them the 2018 to 2024 bias is −1.4%. The cause is not settled: part is the snow forcing after 2017 and part is unexplained (F84; High confidence on the numbers, Low on the forcing share).
Other known gaps
- Logging, fire and beetle kill are not represented (F98).
- The McCulloch South spillway overflow to the Kettle is not represented (F102).
- Forcing after 2017 is bias-corrected Daymet data, not the original model forcing (D33).
Model versions used on this site
| Run | Configuration | Used on |
|---|---|---|
| Working model (bdr_wm_dem) | Cal 2 + D26 + D32 + D33 + D43 + D44 dem | Lake, budget, fish, licence baseline, skill |
| Managed CMIP6 with climate demand | Working model on 18 QDM forcings, AWDM demand per GCM (F93) | Climate |
| Natural CMIP6 | Cal 2 without operations or withdrawals (F55) | Climate (comparison) |
| Full licensed use (licfull_wm_dem) | Working model with every licence at full volume (F90, D65) | Licence |
| Disturbance test (all_dist) | Working model split by disturbance cohort, not recalibrated (F98) | Land |
Numbers on this page and their sources
| Number | Value | Result file | Decision log | Second check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August volume error 1998-2010 (%) | 94.2 | outputs/OBWB_BMIDDemandReleaseFit_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | recomputed from daily |
| August excess 2011-2024 (m3/s) | 1.524 | outputs/OBWB_BMIDDemandReleaseFit_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | recomputed from daily |
| July volume error 1998-2010 (%) | 48.5 | outputs/OBWB_BMIDDemandReleaseFit_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | recomputed from daily |
| WY PBIAS 1998-2017 (%) | −3.3 | outputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasSummary_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasWY_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | WY table |
| WY PBIAS 2018-2024 (%) | 14.9 | outputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasSummary_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasWY_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | WY table |
| WY PBIAS 2018-2024 without WY2018 and WY2023 (%) | −1.4 | outputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasSummary_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/post2017_bias/OBWB_Post2017BiasWY_v1_20261011.csv | F84 | WY table |