Climate scenarios
The working model was run with 9 global climate models (GCMs) under two emission pathways: SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (high). Reservoirs are operated by today's rules, and irrigation demand responds to each climate (F93).
−20.2%
median of 9 GCMs
August flow at 08NM116, SSP2-4.5, 2041 to 2070
F93
−43.5%
median of 9 GCMs
August flow at 08NM116, SSP5-8.5, 2071 to 2100
F93
5.6
days per year, 1994 to 2017 (median of 9 GCMs)
Kokanee-window days below 1.40 m³/s at 08NM116. Added days: +3.4 (SSP2-4.5, 2041 to 2070), +11.7 (SSP5-8.5, 2071 to 2100)
F93
23.69
GL per year, 1994 to 2017
Water demand at the 17 intakes. SSP2-4.5, 2041 to 2070: 26.23 (range 25.51 to 29.56). SSP5-8.5, 2071 to 2100: 30.17 (range 28.33 to 37.76)
F93
outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csv; F93. Download data (CSV)Other results
- The 7-day low flow from July to October changes by −8.5% (SSP2-4.5, 2041 to 2070) and −33.2% (SSP5-8.5, 2071 to 2100) (F93).
- Without reservoirs and withdrawals (the natural model), August flow changes by −20% and −44%, and mean annual flow by +9% and +11% (F55).
Limits
- Nine GCMs give a range, not a probability distribution (F55).
- The model's summer flows are too high (F16), so summer low-flow results are optimistic.
- Land use and irrigation practice are held fixed. The downscaling understates July drying (F93, D52).
Confidence: Moderate (F55, F56, F93).
Numbers on this page and their sources
| Number | Value | Result file | Decision log | Second check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August flow change, managed + climate demand, SSP2-4.5 2041-70 (%) | −20.2 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| August flow change SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 (%) | −43.5 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| Demand all intakes ssp245 2041-2070 median (GL/yr) | 26.23 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp245 2041-2070 max (GL/yr) | 29.56 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp245 2041-2070 min (GL/yr) | 25.51 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp585 2071-2100 median (GL/yr) | 30.17 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp585 2071-2100 max (GL/yr) | 37.76 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp585 2071-2100 min (GL/yr) | 28.33 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Demand all intakes ssp245 1994-2017 median (GL/yr) | 23.69 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Delivery_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | sum of intakes per GCM |
| Kokanee days change SSP2-4.5 2041-70 | 3.4 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| Kokanee days change SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 | 11.7 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| Kokanee days baseline (d/yr) | 5.6 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| 7-day Jul-Oct low flow change SSP2-4.5 2041-70 (%) | −8.5 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| 7-day low flow change SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 (%) | −33.2 | outputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Ensemble_v1_20261011.csvoutputs/climate_managed_demandcc/OBWB_CMIP6Managed_Scenario_v1_20261011.csv | F93 | median of per-GCM rows |
| Natural q_mean change ssp245 2041-2070 (%) | 9 | outputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsEnsemble_v1_20261009.csvoutputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsChange_v1_20261009.csv | F55 | median of per-GCM change rows |
| Natural q_mean change ssp585 2071-2100 (%) | 11 | outputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsEnsemble_v1_20261009.csvoutputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsChange_v1_20261009.csv | F55 | median of per-GCM change rows |
| Natural q_aug_mean change ssp245 2041-2070 (%) | −20 | outputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsEnsemble_v1_20261009.csvoutputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsChange_v1_20261009.csv | F55 | median of per-GCM change rows |
| Natural q_aug_mean change ssp585 2071-2100 (%) | −44 | outputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsEnsemble_v1_20261009.csvoutputs/climate_ensemble/OBWB_CMIP6EnsChange_v1_20261009.csv | F55 | median of per-GCM change rows |