DRAFT. Results are draft pending report v0.12. Not for decisions. Working model: OHME Raven Calibration 2 (precipitation x1.08 above 1,500 m, D26) with fan loss D32, forcing extended to 2024 D33, AWDM withdrawals D43 and reservoir rules D44 (run bdr_wm_dem). Results cut-off commit 392ec26. Built 2026-10-23 13:46 PDT.

State of Mission Creek Okanagan Basin Water Board

Land, forests and fire

Forest covers most of the watershed. The model uses one fixed land cover; logging, fire and beetle kill are not represented in it (F98).

Land cover from the interim AAFC Annual Crop Inventory 2025 map (log scale). Source: outputs/OBWB_InterimCropBySubbasin_v1_20261003.csv. Download data (CSV)

Crops

Cropland covers 1490.2 ha: orchards 68.5%, forage and pasture 20.4%, vineyards 10.0% (F94). Golf courses cover 199 ha (F94). The model withdraws crop demand at the intakes; it has no crop areas of its own (F94).

Cropland by class. The split of orchards by fruit is the Kelowna-wide 2014 share, not mapped (F94). Same source. Download data (CSV)

Forests

The 2025 provincial forest inventory (VRI) gives five forest groups (F97). In the model, almost all forest is one class.

Forest area by group, VRI 2025. Source: outputs/forest_et/OBWB_ForestClassSummary_v1_20261011.csv; F97. Download data (CSV)

The model's grass (10,231 ha) and shrub (6,878 ha) classes come from a land cover of about 2000. Much of that area has since regrown to forest (F96). Mapped wetlands total 1,093 ha and riparian zones 5,940 ha (F99).

Logging, fire and beetles

Equivalent clearcut area (ECA) expresses past logging and fire as the area of fresh clearcut with the same effect on snow and runoff. Above gauge 08NM116, on the central recovery curve, it was 20.0% in 1990, 17.7% in 2008 and 24.1% in 2021 (F98).

ECA above 08NM116 under three published recovery curves. Source: outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_ECAByGaugeYear_v1_20261011.csv; F98. Download data (CSV)

Confidence: High on the inventory and on disturbance being absent from the model; Moderate on ECA and the model test; Low on fire severity and beetle weights (F98).

Numbers on this page and their sources
NumberValueResult fileDecision logSecond check
Cropland (ha)1490.2outputs/OBWB_InterimCropBySubbasin_v1_20261003.csvF94orchard commodity split + other classes
Disturbance test, annual flow change at 08NM116 (GL/yr)7.6outputs/forest_disturbance/raventest/OBWB_RavenTestResponse_v1_20261011.csvF98none
Disturbance test change (%)3.8outputs/forest_disturbance/raventest/OBWB_RavenTestResponse_v1_20261011.csvF98none
ECA above 08NM116 1990, TO2015 (%)20.0outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_ECAByGaugeYear_v1_20261011.csvF98eca_ha / area_ha
ECA above 08NM116 2008, TO2015 (%)17.7outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_ECAByGaugeYear_v1_20261011.csvF98eca_ha / area_ha
ECA above 08NM116 2021, TO2015 (%)24.1outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_ECAByGaugeYear_v1_20261011.csvF98eca_ha / area_ha
2003 fire ha_high (ha)1,358outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_FireEventsInside_v1_20261011.csvF98none
2003 fire ha_low (ha)657outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_FireEventsInside_v1_20261011.csvF98none
2003 fire ha_medium (ha)2,159outputs/forest_disturbance/OBWB_FireEventsInside_v1_20261011.csvF98none
Forage and pasture share (%)20.4outputs/OBWB_InterimCropBySubbasin_v1_20261003.csvF94none
Golf courses in the watershed (ha)199outputs/crop_roster/OBWB_CropRosterAreaBySubbasin_v1_20261011.csvF94none
Model GRASS class (ha)10,231outputs/OBWB_BasinLandCover_v1_20261002.csvF96none
Orchard share of cropland (%)68.5outputs/OBWB_InterimCropBySubbasin_v1_20261003.csvF94crop roster orchard commodities
Riparian zones (ha)5,940outputs/wetland_riparian_et/OBWB_WetlandRiparianAreas_v1_20261011.csvF99km2 column x 100
Model SHRUBLAND class (ha)6,878outputs/OBWB_BasinLandCover_v1_20261002.csvF96none
Vineyard share (%)10.0outputs/OBWB_InterimCropBySubbasin_v1_20261003.csvF94crop roster grape
Mapped wetlands (ha)1,093outputs/wetland_riparian_et/OBWB_WetlandRiparianAreas_v1_20261011.csvF99km2 column x 100